Follow the American League and National League races here from USA TODAY. The Angels are playoff contenders and the Rangers aren't. Philadelphia Phillies (82-80) The bullpen (7.06 ERA in '20) won . SEA . New York Mets. This year is going to be a bit of a mixed bag forthe Nationals. After all, the Friars signed Xander Bogaerts, will be getting back Fernando Tatis Jr. from injury/suspension and will benefit from having Juan Soto and Josh Hader for a full season after acquiring both at the 2022 Trade Deadline. Replacing set-up man Craig Kimbrel with outfielder A.J. The breakout season by the Giants mixed up the run of Dodgers' dominance, but the model expects Los Angeles to reclaim its crown in 2022. The problem is so often health, and that is the concern the model has for the Angels. Do I sound hopeful? Just looking around the NL West, there are two bad teams. Having also crammed these past few weeks, USA TODAY Sports presents its 2022 record predictions, an annual exercise in prognostication attempting to make sense of what went down this offseason and how it fits into team trajectory. As of now, this is the best team in the AL East. But neither system is buying Texas as a contender in 2023. The model works by using past player data to project how they will perform in 2022. The introduction of the DH to the NL should help Dominic Smith and Robinson Cano produce at a higher rate as well. The model doesn't think the signings make Texas a full-fledged contender just yet, but it sees this as a major step in the right direction. PECOTA is much less bullish on the Giants, giving them a winning percentage below .500 and less than a 1% chance of winning the division. The AL playoff picture will likely not come as a surprise. Milwaukee has made the playoffs four years in a row, a streak that should continue as the Cardinals didn't do much to close the gap. CBS Sports is a registered trademark of CBS Broadcasting Inc. Commissioner.com is a registered trademark of CBS Interactive Inc. site: media | arena: mlb | pageType: stories | 7. College Basketball Week 17 Top 25 Predictions Note: Projected winners are listed in bold. Related: Get Paramount Plus today and watch live sports for an unbeatable price! While Cleveland missed the playoffs last year, they also have finished no lower than third in the AL Central since 2012. And yet, they won 90 games last season and I'm going under 84.5 this year. MLB Baseball Standings Projections on TeamRankings.com. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver. Witt Jr. could be the future face of MLB and Melendezs bat is convincing Kansas City to give the catching prospect a shot at other positions. They added Cy Young winner Robbie Ray and 2021 All-Stars in Adam Frazier and Jesse Winker Nobody really knows what to make of theAngels. Add them together with JT Realmuto, Rhys Hoskins and Jean Segura, and this is a deep lineup capable of doing plenty of damage. Toronto's lineup starring Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and Teoscar Hernandez is the best in the American League, and its offense will carry it through the season to one of the league's best records. It was a surprise to see theCubs spendsemi-big onSeiya Suzuki and Marcus Stroman and Chicago enters the new season with most of the roster turned over Cincinnati stayed in the hunt into September last season, but now they'vetraded Sonny Gray, Jesse Winker andEugenio Suarez. Why Original Predictions About The War In Ukraine Were So Off Case in point, Jon Lester had a 4.36 ERA compared to a 5.40 FIP in 12 starts last season after they acquired him and he's now retired. After winning 99 games in 2022, the Yankees were able to re-sign Aaron Judge and Anthony Rizzo in free agency, and they inked All-Star lefty Carlos Rodnto a six-year contract. 103 / 103+59 OR 103 / 162 = .636 OR 63.6%. March 1st, 2023. Someone is going to have to take the crown away fromthe Astrosbefore anyone, even the model, would consider picking against them. The Los Angeles Dodgers might have lost the NL West in 2021, but theres no doubt this is the best team in the division entering the 2022 season. If Byron Buxton is healthy, he's one of the games' brightest stars, but that continues to remain a big "if.". Should-be ace Jack Flaherty has a shoulder injury. Find the Pistons vs Cavaliers odds below. It's hard to see that changing in 2022 with a new crop of players in the AL Central. However, the Yankees lineup could be without 60% of its production whenever it plays in Toronto. I don't know why, though. MORE: The Sporting News' 2022 MLB Opening Day Power Rankings Here are predictions for the 2022 MLB season from TSN's panel of baseball experts. Victor Robles still flashes big potential, but has yet to make everything click. The Tigersare in a position where it feels like they are on the verge of putting it all together at the big-league level. We should also mention the Phillies, who went further than both the Mets and Braves in the 2022 postseason before losing to the Astros in the World Series. Follow the American League and National League races here from USA TODAY. Max Scherzer and Justin . Fans of the Yankeesare disappointed that New York wasn't able to land any major name in free agency, but that doesn't stop the model from being bullish on the Bronx Bombers' chances to make the playoffs. The offense is stacked with names like Luis Robert, Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada and Jose Abreu. Ronald Acuna Jr. will be back before too long and joins a lineup that still features Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, Dansby Swanson and Eddie Rosario. However, its outfield will be problematic and the starting rotation is even worse. Look, I know they do some sort of sorcery there, but the pitching depth is depleted and that's a rough division. The Major League Baseball awards are being finalized and various teams and players are being recognized for their performances this past season. Adam Wainwright was ridiculous down the stretch last season and it's hard to bet against him, but he's also 40 years old. Calling up Gabriel Arias could help with that. We also like the depth pieces added to the staff (Carlos Martinez, Matt Boyd) and it will prove crucial this year. Pitching depth will be crucial because of the compressed training period before the regular season starts. 3 (Freddy Peralta) and a potential Rookie of the year candidate (Aaron Ashby). Losing Carlos Correa hurts, its why were not projecting the Astros to win the AL pennant, but theres a real gap between Houston and its competition in the division. They are picked as a slight favorite to win the Commissioner's Trophy, just edging out the Blue Jays. It's always possible Aaron Nola gets back to ace level and Ranger Surez has all kinds of talent, possibly giving the Phillies a Big Three. The loss of Gray takes away one arm that found success pitching in Colorado, but German Marquez and Antonio Senzatela continued to prove last season that they've figured it out. Related: 2022 Boston Red Sox schedule, roster and predictions, Related: MLB trade rumors Latest MLB rumors entering July. Framber Valdez and Luis Garcia are two bright young arms in the rotation, while Verlander looks to return to his Cy Young-winning ways since coming back from Tommy John surgery. Here's who they think will rule the ninth inning in 2023. 2 starter acquired before being more optimistic with our MLB predictions. The NL Central hasn't had a repeat champion since the Cubs in 2016-17, and PECOTA expects that trend to continue in 2023, giving the Brewers a two-game edge over the Cardinals. AL East This is undoubtedly the toughest division in baseball. 1 overall spot in the AL. The biggest thing we like about the Rays is their wealth of pitching, a crucial factor in a season where arms will be tested more than ever. Landing Carlos Correa is a monumental upgrade at shortstop, improving this teams fielding and run production. Until those issues are addressed, even a .500 record feels unlikely. I don't think they are bottom-feeder level (Orioles, Pirates, Diamondbacks), though. MLB predictions for the AL East are the most fun, theyll even vary on a weekly basis. The rotation will get a boost from the return of Mike Clevinger and the trade acquisition of Manaea. Find the best projected stats of the 2023 MLB season and build the best Fantasy Baseball team. But how does the model see it shaking out? 2022, 2021, 2022 MLB Pitching, 2022 MLB Batting, 2022 MLB Standings, 2022 MLB Attendance, 2022 MLB Rookies , . Starting with the winners, there won't be many who will dispute that the White Sox should be the favorite to win the division. Most of all, the Rockies will continue to flex their muscles in Coors Field, where they were 48-33 last season. ZiPS projects both the Mariners and Angels for 85 wins, putting the two clubs in a tie for the third AL Wild Card spot behind the Blue Jays and Rays. Sign In. There is going to be some competition in Texas soon enough for the AL West crown. The return of spring weather brings hope for every team. 15 seasons. Minnesota traded Josh Donaldson and others to free up room to sign prized free-agent shortstop Carlos Correa. The injury to Jacob deGrom is a major blow to the Mets' chances of winning the division, but if he's healthy once he comes back from his shoulder injury, New York would look like one of the best teams in the NL. MORE:Seiya Suzuki has won over Cubs' clubhouse; next impression will come with bat. Sure enough, thats exactly what they did. Projected Standings, Roster Management, Draft Results, Keeper Management; Coming early January 2023! Wed also feel comfortable projecting a Willson Contreras trade in our MLB predictions, coming in July. The Phillies Will Need The Long Ball For A Long Shot World Series Comeback . The GB column is an abbreviation for Games Back and it shows how far teams are behind the leader of the division or put simply, first place. After reaching the playoffs in 2020 and winning the AL Central with a 93-69 record the following year, the White Sox seemed poised to establish themselves as the divisions alpha dog in 2022. Joey Votto has never hit 40 homers in a season. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Instead, their big additions were Mitch Haniger, Michael Conforto, Sean Manaea, Ross Stripling and Taylor Rogers. The rest of the AL Central is largely thinking about the future. Maybe. Some major changes await the 2022 MLB season. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. That'll change this year, despite his being projected to hit ten to fifteen fewer homers than that. . In this space below, we'll grab some totals picks. There's certainly a void in the lineup without Tatis (and once his wrist is fully recovered, do we trust his shoulder to stay put the rest of the way?) But as you might expect, they don't agree on everything. For now, well keep the Yankees in the No. Unfortunately, the starting rotation and lineup arent remotely good enough to even challenge for 72 wins. Bob Melvin is the perfect skipper for the clubhouse, providing both strong in-game management and a leader who can help keep a lot of personalities in sync. October 6th, 2022. Luis Robert is a darkhorse MVP candidate, Jose Abreu is consistent and there is even more All-Star talent (Eloy Jimenez, Yasmani Grandal, Tim Anderson). Despite employing Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani, the Halos missed the playoffs for the eighth straight season in 2022. We just saw that I like the Blue Jays for around 95 wins. Thats enough to push them ahead of New York in our MLB predictions. FIVE BIG QUESTIONS:AL East | AL Central | AL WestNL East | NL Central | NL West. But just who will it be that claims the Commissioner's Trophy at the end of the year? Put yourself out there. Team: Wins: Losses: Chicago White Sox: 85: 77: 8,128 plate appearances. There was a point in the 2021 season when it felt the Mets were going to run away with the division. CHW Chicago White Sox. The 2022 MLB season is finally here. Instead, they missed the playoffs. The results, Marcus Stroman being replaced by Max Scherzer and holes in the lineup being filled by Starling Marte, Mark Canha and Eduardo Escobar. The Rangerswere the talk of the offseason before the lockout when they made two major splashy signings in bringing in Corey Seager and Marcus Semien to produce maybe the best middle-infield combination in baseball. The defense is terrible. The Dodgers are currently favored to take it all. Thats everything the Milwaukee Brewers already bring to the table. If I believe the Dodgers end the regular season with the most wins, I like my chances for hitting the over here. There are two MVP candidates in the lineup and the Trevor Story signing creates one of the best infield in MLB. Its not a huge surprise that ZiPS projects the Padres and Dodgers for the same record. ZiPS projects the White Sox for 74 wins, closer to the Tigers (71) and Royals (70) than the Guardians (83) and Twins (80). Today's MLB slate is very busy, and the first game is at 3:10 pm ET. The Cleveland Cavaliers (39-26, 26-7 home) return to Ohio on Saturday for an Eastern Conference affair with the lowly Detroit Pistons (15-48, 7-25 away) who are in the gutter of the conference standings. MLB games today will offer daily predictions and the full schedule for the entire season from 2022 Opening Day to the World Series. MLB OFFSEASON GRADES:Dodgers, Mets earn high marks; Yankees confuse. There are question marks all over the place, as I explained in the preview. There were three last season. Something is going to give there -- in terms of sending one team down to the mid-80s in wins, this time around -- and the Red Sox total is 85.5. MLB, NBA, CBB, GOLF, NHL, HORSE RACING AND MORE - PLUS ADVANCED COMPUTER SIMULATIONS, WINNING . They'll have thump. The Records are updated Live on the MLB Standings after each game finishes. The . The Sporting News' model sees the Blue Jays as a slim favorite to win the division over the Yankees, Rays and Red Sox, but it expects all four teams to reach the playoffs. Meanwhile, ZiPS not only projects the Cards to win a second straight NL Central title but also gives St. Louis the largest margin of victory (seven games) of any of the projected division champions. FanGraphs Membership. And while the Rays have been able to work around stuff like this the last several years, I don't believe they have the same combination of depth and talent in the bullpen to absorb the starter workload shortfall. Vlad Guerrero Jr. ties Joe DiMaggio for the 2nd-most HR . Let's dig in on the "best team" part, though. Before long, Hayes will soon be joined on the left side of the infield by towering shortstop Oneil Cruz. However, the Mets will still be in a prime position to compete and will likely make a big splash in the 2023 postseason. Whenthe Padresmade the playoffs in the abbreviated 2020 season, many expected they'd take that next step in 2021 and be a true World Series contender. However, the starting rotation just doesnt seem good enough in a long season. Major League Leaders . From back-to-back division champions to the cellar, the Twins'tumble in 2021 came as a shock after looking like a dominant team in each of the prior two years. Get Paramount Plus today and watch live sports for an unbeatable price! All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Are we really counting on Miles Mikolas and Dakota Hudson, then? Not many expected the Braves to win their fourth World Series title at the beginning of the 2021 season. If the 2021 Mariners were a 76-win true talent team and their true talent this season is, say, eight games better, they'd go 84-78, right? The East looks like a potential power in the National League, as well as the American League. Major League Baseball's arduous 2021-22offseason featured a 99-day lockout that ultimately resulted in an abbreviated spring training and a delayed Opening Day. Torontos moves this offseason inspire confidence Canada might host a World Series game. While Atlanta lost longtime franchise fixture Freddie Freeman, it replaced him with Matt Olson from the A's, who should be able to more than match the power output of the former MVP. The pitching staff is worrisome. The Phillies enter the season probably, objectively, a worse team than both the Braves and Mets in the NL East. Everyone wants to see his light-tower power in the thin air of Coors Field, just as CJ Cron in his first year in Colorado. since the new labor deal came together on March 10, and his new 11-year, $182 million contract, seemingly have to prove themselves all over again, signing him to a seven-year, $182 million contract, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. Milwaukee had a relatively quiet offseason after finishing seven games behind St. Louis last season, but PECOTA projects the team's vaunted pitching staff to allow . Ultimately, this is a total rebuild and the organization isnt thinking about the final MLB standings in 2022. section: | slug: mlb-win-totals-each-teams-2022-projection-plus-best-bets-on-over-unders-for-dodgers-cardinals-more | sport: baseball | route: article_single.us | This is tough. Major League Baseball's 2022 season has arrived. Ryan Fagan ( @RyanFagan ) The Atlanta Braves surprised everyone by winning the World Series. All posts tagged "MLB" Feb. 22, 2023. . Opening Day is set for Thursday (for 14 teams, at least), and thankfully for baseball fans, we'll still have a full, 162-game season in 2022. There are six divisions in the MLB, divided into three . The NL Central is mediocre, at best, and the Cardinals are a part of the mediocrity. KC Kansas City Royals. The model's outlook of the AL Central is perhaps what differs from conventional wisdom the most in its projections. The Cherries are 19th in the standings with 21 points but trail Leeds United by one for 17th place. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and . Only enabled for screen sizes > 1024px. Watch out, Milwaukee is a darkhorse World Series threat. As for the Rays, the Wander Franco hype is real. Notably, ZiPS and PECOTA both project the Angels to be significantly better than the Rangers, whose moves have been much splashier than the Halos in the past two offseasons. For all the talk of Bichette and Guerrero Jr. being a dynamic infield presence, Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers also are a dangerous pair of bats from the left side of the infield. 9:55 am ET, MLB rumors: Dodgers, Yankees seek depth after injuries, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to miss WBC with knee injury, Kik Hernndez recounts on-field bathroom accident, Phillies top prospect Andrew Painter has tender elbow, Max Scherzer fools hitter with new pitch clock rules, Report: Padres looking to extend Juan Soto, Josh Hader, MLB win totals for every team, best bets on over-unders, Phillies top prospect Painter has elbow tenderness, Report: Padres looking to extend Soto, Hader, Report: Mets to use six-man rotation at times in 2023, Dodgers SS Gavin Lux tears ACL, will miss entire season. Nov. 4, 2022. Our MLB projections will impact our projected postseason bracket. The 2022 Major League Baseball season is almost here and Sportsnauts MLB predictions offer projections for the standings, award winners and more. Chicago White Sox. The Rays have won the division two years in a rowbut didn't do much to upgrade,and have a lot riding on Wander Franco (and his new 11-year, $182 million contract)taking a significant step forward Yankees fans may have hated the offseason, but the team didn't get significantly worse over the winter. It might not matter right now, but it will cost them multiple games and potentially a playoff spot. The 2022 Major League Baseball season is nearly upon us. Even after losing Carlos Rodon, the rotation is still be one of the game's best with Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynn and Dylan Cease at the front. Were using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. Chicago averaged nearly five runs a game with injuries limiting . How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. This doesn't necessarily mean they'll win the World Series and a surprisingly disappointing season is always possible. The rotation lost Robbie Ray but added Kevin Gausman and Yusei Kikuchi. 400. Major League Baseball's arduous 2021-22 offseason featured a 99-day lockout that ultimately resulted in an abbreviated spring training and a delayed Opening . Is the NL West a two- or three-team race? Again, I don't think they'll be good, overall, but I have a buffer of 92 losses here, as 70-92 gets the job done. The rotation could be in tatters behind Zack Wheeler. Coming off an 81-81 campaign, San Francisco had an offseason that can best be described as OK. The Giants had grand designs to add a superstar, but they came up short in the Judge sweepstakes and walked away from a deal with Carlos Correa, reportedly due to concerns about his physical. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. The AL East is the best division in baseball, and it doesn't take a model to know that. I like getting late in the signing process and just going offense by adding Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos to Bryce Harper et al in the lineup, though. The White Sox, who play in one of the weaker divisions, are the favorite to come away with the No. With the last few days of build up comes all kinds of predictions, picks, best bets and the like. Many thought they'd be that bad last year and they won 74 games. The model's concerns for Seattle stem from its uncertain pitching depth beyond Ray and Marco Gonzales and the risk of an underperforming infield, but make no mistake, the future is bright in Seattle. They didn't re-sign Miley and traded away franchise icons Winker and Suarez in a salary dump before signing Tommy Pham, Donovan Solano, Colin Moran and trading for Mike Minor. Adley Rutschman and Grayson Rodriguez aren't far away from reaching the majors, and bats like Cedric Mullins, Trey Mancini and Ryan Mountcastle have already proven they can mash in the big leagues. MORE:Trading for Matt Chapman a better fit for rising Blue Jays than signing Freddie Freeman. See how your team stacks up against the rest of Major League Baseball with league, division, and playoff standings. After adding closer Craig Kimbrel, the gap between Los Angeles and its NL West foes is even wider. MORE:Cody Bellinger is struggling again, but Dodgers are so good that it might not matter. The Padres are absolutely a fringe playoff contender in the NL, but I'm not seeing them on the cusp of 90 wins. It should be a fourth consecutive last-place season for the Pirates, who hope Ke'Bryan Hayes bounces back and prospectOneil Cruz brings some excitement. While the MLB season is still a few months away, there has been plenty of excitement to what the new campaign could bring. New York received good news with the restrictions on unvaccinated players being lifted. Bookmark this page for in-season updates to our MLB predictions. The Blue Jays will, once again, be one of the best fourth-place finishers since MLB went to the six-division format in 1994. Now, the Red Sox also have Trevor Story, who should certainly enjoy teeing off the Green Monster. The Post's Joel Sherman predicts the AL Central: 1. The front end of the rotation offers some star arms in Nathan Eovaldi, Chris Sale and Tanner Houck, who can match up with many of the best in the AL. Fun fact: He finished the 2016, 2018, 2019 and 2021 seasons with a combined batting average in the .290s, so maybe it wasn't surprising that he finished his first MLB season 91 games for the . And I'd win the under. 2005-2023 Team Rankings, LLC. Now, did that stop us from asking a number of MLB . Close. The predicted standings for each team are the average wins and losses in the 20,000 simulations. 5 min read. Way Too Early MLB 2022 National League Standings Predictions. I just feel like they'll need a miracle this season.